Mission 3.25 Target

Agent Report: The Briefing Room

Presidents’ Day this week, and these trading holidays always seem to make the day feel longer than it actually is. But stepping back and taking a Macro Lens approach, the markets continue to push forward with resilience.

The S&P 500 closed about 57 points higher, now sitting just 20 points shy of its all-time highs—a psychological level that traders will be watching closely. Over in tech, the Nasdaq ended last week 403 points higher, also within striking distance of its previous peak.

Gold, however, saw a bit of selling pressure on Friday, retreating $27/oz and leaving the week slightly negative. Given the continued economic uncertainty and inflation data, gold’s movement here could be more of a positioning shuffle rather than a broader shift in trend.

China’s Tech Awakening?

China remains a key global focus of mine, and the Hang Seng Tech Index opened its Tuesday session with an explosive 2.7% jump. Standout names led the charge:

• Xiaomi & Kuaishou surged over 5%

• Alibaba gained 4%

• Tencent added 2%

This rally came on the heels of a meeting between President Xi Jinping and prominent entrepreneurs, signaling renewed government support for the private sector. That’s a big narrative shift, and one that seems to be awakening investor confidence in China’s tech landscape.

Now, stepping back—if we view this from a broader tech cycle perspective, I can’t help but draw a comparison to China’s DeepSeek AI unveiling a few weeks ago. To me, this moment feels eerily similar to OpenAI’s late-2022 launch in the U.S. At the time, ChatGPT didn’t truly gain mainstream attention until mid-2023, when the AI boom sent names like $NVDA parabolic. If we’re seeing a similar trajectory, DeepSeek may be China’s equivalent of that inflection point, a moment that could propel Chinese tech out of its slump and back into global relevance. I would also like to place a Asterik on China as a trade at the moment because of the price appreciation we have seen just within the last 2 weeks, there may be a market pullback within some upcoming sessions and or later with the China Two Sessions meeting in March

CPI & Inflation: The Sticky Problem

Last week’s CPI print came in hot, showing a 3% Y/Y increase. But the breakdown paints a clearer picture of where the real pressure is:

• Egg prices skyrocketed +53% (yes, you read that right)

• Car insurance is up +12%

• Transportation costs climbed +8%

A particularly striking comment came from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who noted:

“In the last decade, CPI inflation in January has surprised on the upside 9 out of 10 times. My conjecture is that seasonal adjustments are struggling to keep up with a fast-changing economy, and we need to parse the underlying trends from the month-to-month noise.”

Translation? The Fed seems to be arguing that seasonal factors are distorting the data—but I’m not buying it. The bigger issue remains: where’s the plan to bring down services inflation? And that’s before factoring in potential tariff adjustments that could add even more fuel to the fire.

As we move forward, these inflation prints, alongside market momentum near record highs, will be key themes to track. Whether this is a moment of exhaustion or a launching pad higher remains the question of the week.

Revisiting Past Intel - $HOOD Success & How to use Target Acquisitions Column

The beauty of intelligence gathering in markets is watching the thesis unfold in real time—especially when the insights laid out months prior come to fruition in ways that exceed expectations. This time around, we’re revisiting two key themes: Robinhood’s market disruption and the Target Acquisitions that went ballistic.

Robinhood: The Disruptor That Keeps On Giving

After diving into Robinhood’s ($HOOD) latest earnings call, I couldn’t help but feel a renewed excitement—not just for the company itself but for what it signals about the evolution of retail investing. The game is getting more competitive, and Robinhood continues to be the catalyst forcing the industry to level up.

This was clear back in 2018/19 when Robinhood pioneered commission-free trading, a move that reshaped the brokerage industry and forced legacy players like Charles Schwab ($SCHW) and Interactive Brokers ($IBKR) to follow suit. Now, we’re seeing history repeat itself—Robinhood has successfully scaled 24/5 trading for over 100 stocks, and suddenly Schwab wants in on the action.

This is a perfect example of what I call the “Michael Jordan Effect” in market innovation. Just like how MJ’s iconic switch-hands layup in ‘91 inspired generations of players—Ja Morant, Dwyane Wade, and others finding ways to replicate and refine it—Robinhood is pioneering moves that the industry inevitably adopts.

From a financial perspective, the results speak for themselves:

• Robinhood just posted its first $1B revenue quarter

• Gold subscribers surged 80% YoY to 2.6M, driving Gold subscription revenue past $170M annually

• 10%+ of Robinhood’s total customer base is now in Gold, reinforcing its SaaS-like growth trajectory

• Profit margins? Insane, 90.3% gross margins last quarter

• 47% annual margin (for context, Schwab runs at 27% and Interactive Brokers at 8%)

And if that wasn’t enough, CEO Vlad Tenev teased a “Gold Event” in March, hinting at new product rollouts—including, interestingly, advisory services. If you recall, I alluded to this very possibility back in Mission 48.24—and now we’re watching it materialize in real time.

Bottom line? Robinhood remains the sole true disruptor in brokerage and retail finance, and its ability to force industry-wide shifts while simultaneously expanding its own margins is what makes it one of the most fascinating names in the space.

Target Acquisitions: The 85%-130% Runs

Another critical component of intelligence gathering in these reports is tracking strong technical setups—sometimes before the full fundamental picture is clear. In Mission 46.24, three names stood out with promising setups, and their follow-through has been nothing short of explosive.

Novum Cognitio – The Psychology of Market Narratives

There exists a psychological phenomenon in markets—one that has persisted for centuries—where groups of individuals align around a shared belief, pushing prices higher. Eventually, the strategy that once worked loses its edge, and the so-called “bubble” bursts.

Yet, in the modern era, something feels different. The cycles of speculation have expanded, and what was once short-lived now carries far greater reach. I believe this shift began with the GameStop ($GME) and AMC ($AMC) phenomenon of early 2021. At the time, I assumed that traditional financial forces—those capable of moving billions at the press of a button—would snuff out this new speculative mindset. And maybe they did, briefly. But liquidity in the M2 money supply and the subsequent wave of hyperinflation in 2022 created conditions where speculation was no longer just a passing trend—it became a structural feature of markets.

At its core, speculation is the act of buying something not because of its current value, but because of the expectation that its value will be higher in the future. Imagine a 6th grader playing a game of marbles: they trade a plain marble for a shiny one, believing that other kids will want the shiny marble more later on. That’s speculation.

I typically don’t lean too heavily into speculation in my investment thesis, but I also recognize that at certain inflection points, it is not only useful but necessary—especially when investing in high-growth companies. These companies are often not yet profitable, still searching for their exact product-market fit, but backed by strong technology with the potential for network effects.

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger often discuss the value of dislocation—the moments when great businesses are available at a discount. I extend that idea further: when high-growth companies are mispriced, not because of their fundamentals today, but because the market has yet to understand how valuable their technology will be in the future. A prime example of this is Palantir ($PLTR)—initially dismissed as just another government defense contractor, only for the market to later realize its massive enterprise AI potential.

In these cases, profitability today is not always the priority. Instead, the story, the narrative, and the expanding belief system behind a stock can be just as powerful. Some recent names that fit this mold:

Grab Holdings ($GRAB) – The Uber of Southeast Asia

• Earnings call tomorrow—a potential inflection point for the story.

• Posted first positive EBITDA last quarter—a fundamental shift.

• Talks of a merger with GoTo Group, institutional investors circling.

Oscar Health ($OSCR) – Fixing a broken system

• A direct-to-consumer health insurance company cutting out agency costs.

• Focused on Individual Coverage Health Reimbursement Arrangements (ICHRA), where employees buy their own healthcare and get reimbursed by employers.

• Revenue growth is staggering—30x in the last five years.

• Not a flashy tech play, but its narrative aligns with a broader trend of decentralizing traditional industries.

Final Thought: The Power of the Market’s Story

The legendary economist John Maynard Keynes once said:

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

This simple truth holds weight: the stock market is not just numbers—it is a culmination of emotions, speculation, and belief systems. A stock may trade at an absurd 215 P/E ratio, and logic may scream that it is overvalued. But logic alone doesn’t dictate price action—sentiment does. *Cough Cough $PLTR*

Rather than resisting this, I see it as an opportunity. Instead of fighting against irrationality, why not manage risk and use it to your advantage? Sometimes, the stocks with the strongest narratives continue to run far longer than anyone anticipates. The key is knowing when to ride the wave—and when to step off.

Target Acquisitions

The Field Report

“Acquire empirical knowledge & apply it with integral focus”

Happy Black History Month 

Thank you for your time

Nedrick H.M

EquityAgent ∫︎